Survivor South Pacific: Power Rankings Week Six

I'm on a roll! Last week, I had Elyse in the bottom spot and gained some points (14), plus bonus points for predicting Christine's RI defeat of Stacey(1), bringing me to a total of 58. Of course, I'm still trailing Xfinity's Gordon Holmes(64) and Andrea Boehlke(61), but gaining ground. Here are my predictions for the week:

Team Erwin: 58 points.

1. In charge of his alliance and sailing forth with an idol in his pocket and no danger of immediate elimination that I can see.

 

2. Keith's strength is keeping him safe, but he's not strong enough to take the big risks so far. We'll see how far he can go. 

3. I had my early doubts about Sophie, but she has quickly become one of my favorite players, and she's in a good position with her tribe, for now. 

4. Albert, quiet, likable, dependable, not going anywhere yet. 

 5. Jim and Cochran made big moves last week that are more likely to cost Cochran if the fallout hits differently than expected.

6. Ozzy looks like he's going to be in trouble in the previews, but he does have that idol and should know enough to play it if needed. Not that he has shown tremendous foresight in the past...

7. Rick continues to play an uneventful game. I can't help but him somewhere in the middle for ranking purposes.

8. Whitney could be in trouble if Ozzy regains some love and decides to break up the tribe power couple. Whitney is more dispensable than Keith pre-merge. 

9. Dawn could have allied herself with the new power players on her tribe, or she could still be in danger of being cut for not being strong at challenges. It's a new Dawn?

10. Cochran, making the big moves. But does this make him a hero, or more vulnerable than ever?

11. Brandon should probably rank higher. He's hanging on long enough to be seen as the perfect putz to bring to the end. But I just can't stand his constant power struggle with himself. This would have been the perfect season to add animation to Survivor, a cartoon devil and angel pair to sit on Brandon's shoulders. But unnecessary, because I think Brandon sees them anyway. 

 12. Mikayla continues to torment Brandon, plus stands on the outside of the main alliance as a result. I think Mikayla could be going soon but...

13. We've suddenly seen a lot of Edna, particularly of Edna annoying everyone on her tribe. Is her side alliance with Coach enough to save her? Maybe not this week, Edna. 

Bonus:

Elyse is a strong player, but Christine knows the ropes. She's one determined woman. 

 

Survivor South Pacific: Power Rankings Week Five

Bouncing back! Last week, I had Stacey in the bottom spot and gained some points, plus bonus points for predicting Christine's RI defeat of Mark Papa Bear Anthony, bringing me to a total of 43. Of course, I'm still trailing Xfinity's Gordon Holmes(49) and Andrea Boehlke(48). I need them to slip big so I can catch up-- but I don't think it will happen any time soon.

This week:

1. We see Jim and Cochran scheming, and Ozzy and Elyse cuddling. What we don't see much of, beyond tiny teasing glimspes, is that Keith seems to be quietly in control. Or at least, no one is gunning for him yet. Well played. 

2. Can there be any question that he's the boss over at Upolu? He's looking pretty safe to me.

3. Remember Grant? Albert is to Coach what Grant was to Rob. Unless tables turn down the line, that might work out about as well for Albert. 

4. Whitney seems pretty tight with Keith, and she's ducking the spotlight that seems to have landed on Elyse. 

5. Playing strong and silent seems to be working for Rick.

6. On the opposite end of the spectrum, running his mouth doesn't seem to be hurting Jim, oddly enough.

7. I'm liking Sophie more and more. Not seeing enough of her, but liking her.

8. If his scheming catches up to him, or he makes some glaring errors in a challenge, he's toast. But for now, he's looking like he might be contagious, spreading the paranoid thinking around behind Ozzy's back. Very interesting.

 9. His little TC breakdown makes me want to say he's at risk, but I'm learning that is not going to happen as long as Coach wants to keep him.

10. Brandon seems to have backed off Mikayla, for now, but he'll be after her again after last week's TC comments on how she feels about his Hantz connection.

 11. Letting his guard down could cost him big, and soon, and packing for home with another unused Immunity Idol in his pocket.

12. Lucky for Ozzy, there's still Dawn (the weakest? Maybe not.) and Elyse (his cuddle buddy). A split vote could get either one of them.

13. Ooh, Edna! Who knew you were so annoying to your teammates? And you don't seem to believe it, which means you could talk yourself right out of camp. But don't worry, your giggles will haunt Mikayla's dreams as if you are still there.

14. Someone's got a target on her back all of the sudden, thanks to the schemy Cochran. But will it work? Will you really go next? I find it hard to believe, yet too hard to resist the nagging feeling that says it might be all up for Elyse after last week's Jim-Cochran undertones.

Redemption Island Bonus:

I think Christine might just do it again! I can't see Stacey beating her.

Survivor South Pacific: Power Rankings Week Four

Last week, I went wild with a new theory... and I got burned. Now I am way behind (at 27 points compared to Andrea and Gordon's 32 and 33) and starting over, going back to my traditional method (totally guessing what happens instead of trying to figure it out by who gets airtime).

1. A surprising number one, considering he was termed a "temporary player" by Christine (now playing at Redemption Island) but Coach has a handle on his team, lead them to an Immunity challenge victory, and seems to be driving decisions. Go Coach!

2. Keith is in Ozzy's good graces, but proved he's thinking on his own when we ran to Whitney with vital information. He's a player, and he's ready to do what it takes to win. But is he trusting the wrong people?

3. Strong, solid, silent when it counts, and in the right alliance. Will he go all the way or become disposable at merge? For now, he's sitting pretty.

4. Keith's go-to girl, and she's using her wiles. Or is she just flirting? I don't give her much credit for having a strategy yet but she knows enough to not make waves and make friends with the right people.

5. I'm finally getting to know Sophie better, and I'm finally believing that she is a solid player. Plus, I love her camera confessionals. She might be my new favorite.

6. I'm starting to think that he might be the loudmouth, underhanded bully that someone might see as perfect to bring to the final. Oh no! But he'll credit his savvy gameplay and believe himself a Survivor Mastermind, naturally.

7. I've been hesitant to discount Rick since he chopped through those ropes in one fell swoop during one of the first big challenges. I was afraid he was on the outside of his alliance, but now I think he's just wisely not running his mouth all the time.

8. I don't think much of Elyse, but that's probably a good sign for her so far. I think she's allied herself with the right people and runs no risk of getting the boot any time soon.

9. If Coach is now a power player, then Edna, who has his ear outside of his core alliance, is not leaving yet. She's useful.

10. As much as it pains me, I have to admit that Brandon is not looking like he's on the way out. He's in a vital alliance. His wavering doesn't seem to be scaring anyone as much as it should. He might start looking like a good fall guy to bring all the way. Would anyone vote to give this creep a million dollars?

11. Brandon's kryptonite. If he had his way, she would be gone. But clearly, though they're keeping him around, no one's in the mood to indulge Brandon and lose a strong player. But can her spirit handle his deflating comments?

12. He might not be challenge-strong, but is he a master of the game? About to make a move? It could happen.

13. If Cochran makes the right moves, as shown in previews, Ozzy could be in trouble. Is Ozzy really in danger, this early, and with an idol under his belt? It could be an awesome blindside.

14. Can Dawn hang on after the other old guy on her team, Mark, got the boot last week? She's rallied after Week One and I don't think anyone wants to vote her out... but desperate times call for losing weak players.

15. Christine's best buddy hasn't won any favor at camp. If someone's got to go, she's the best candidate to go next.

Redemption Island Bonus Guess: I think Christine might just beat Mark to hang out at RI a little longer.

Survivor South Pacific: Week Three Power Rankings

Last week, I tied Gordon Holmes with 17 points, beating out Andrea with 15. This week, I'm taking big risks that will either put me behind or drive me to a strong lead (not that I'm actually allowed to play- I'm an Armchair Ranker.) 

My new strategy is to keep track of who gets actual airtime, how often, and try to build a ranking from that. Which would mean that Stacey is... totally safe? Which seems to go against all logic. But you have to figure that if someone gets lots of airtime, they are either going soon, or going all the way. It's rare that a player gets no air time right before they get booted, but it does happen maybe twice a season. So is Stacey one of those rare occasions? Could be. Taking a chance. My rankings:

1. Keith showed that he is both thinking, and thinking ahead. It doesn't hurt that he is strong and fit. I think his chances of going all the way are phenomenal. Provided he stays under the radar after merge.

2. Albert is strong and playing a good game so far, putting himself out there in support of Coach just a little, but not too much. 

3. Whitney. Pretty, quiet, playing it safe (and no camera confessional time that I can recall). 

4. Found his idol, and seems to be in charge on his team. Go Ozzy.

5. Looked like Coach was going to be in trouble at the beginning, but has he bounced back? He looked pretty secure at Tribal Council. And let's not forget, he rates loyalty almost as important as strength. This might not bode well for loyal-but-weak Edna.  

6. Brandon's pick to go home. Isn't it ironic that Brandon claims he would never let a pretty girl get in the way of bringing his family a million dollars, and yet, his gunning for Mikayla caused him to betray his alliance? Hmm. Coach's desire to keep Mikayla over Brandon's protests might bode well for her. 

7. Rick, the strong, quiet cowboy. I'm not sure he's in Coach's alliance as much as people think he is. He seemed fairly out of the loop, which might mean trouble for Rick down the road. 

8. It's a new Dawn. After my early misgivings and Dawn's early breakdown, I had my doubts. But she has bounced back with a new attitude, and a friendly approach. Maybe Gordon was right. Dawn could go far. 

9. Not much going on with Elyse. We hardly know her. I think that means she is safe for now.

10. As disturbing as it was that he gave himself the nickname of Papa Bear in ep 1, we didn't see enough Mark in ep 2 to think he's homeward bound. 

11. The man is outspoken, annoying, rude, and he thinks all too highly of himself. This formula has worked for some Survivors in the past. I hope it backfires on Jim. 

12. Edna. Last week, she had airtime and gained the unenviable distinction of being on a "need to know basis" with Coach. It could mean an early exit. 

13. I think people are giving Sophie far too much credit as being in with a strong alliance. She hasn't shone in challenges, and she doesn't seem to be a star at camp, either. I can't see her lasting. 

14. After last week, Stacey should be the obvious choice to go next on her tribe. But yet, I get the feeling we haven't seen the end of Stacey. We've barely seen Stacey, actually, aside from her connection to the ill-fated Christine. This might buy her a few weeks. I think she might be effective at scrambling for a new game plan. 

15. Sure, he's lovable in his own way, and potentially useful to Ozzy's long-term strategy. Does this make him safe? I'm not so sure. 

16. Hantz. Need I say more? After flaunting his alliance betrayal at last week's TC, a smart Coach might be gunning to be rid of the disloyal creep. I know, I know. It doesn't look likely. But I am ever hopeful (and taking a good lead if I am right). 

Redemption Island Bonus: I'm going against Andrea and Gordon for the simple joy of bucking the trend and saying that Semhar will beat Christine at the RI challenge. Her beat will go on.